Cheap Oil, how low it can go???

Since June, Oil prices  has dropped from about $115 for a barrel to $80 or so, a reduction of more than  a quarter and its  being forecasted the prices will likely to fall further as there is no anticipated huge increase  in demand  for the next few quarters.

If prices settle at today’s level, the bill for oil consumers will be about $1 trillion a year lower. That would be a shot in the arm for a stagnating world economy. It would also have big political consequences.  For some governments it would be a rare opportunity & for others a threat.  Countries like India, Indonesia  and few others  find the low prices  reason enough to fast-forward oil sector reforms and decontrol retail prices specially Diesel, by far the most used petroleum product.

If speculators truly are the major cause of the price decline, then it increases the chance of a faster recovery in oil prices.  The other reasons could be the result of unexpected and maybe short-lived developments. War torn Libya somehow pumping 40% more oil.  Saudi Arab’s decision to boost output to protect its market share and hurt American shale producers and see off new developments in the Arctic.

The prices may rebound once U.S. shale producers start decreasing production. Its believed that 33% of U.S. oil production becomes uneconomical at $80 a barrel. In fact, according to analyst at $80 a barrel, oil production would rise only 5%, and at $ 70 production growth will  halt entirely.  Almost similar is the case for Canada’s  sand oil.

Saudi Arabia, which derives 80% of its government revenue from oil and dominates the cartel's actions, needs $95-per barrel oil to remain solvent. Venezuela @ $120, Iran @$140 though  the  production cost  of oil  which could be much lower say  $5 - $30 or so.   These countries aggressive foreign policy, investment decisions, extravagant spending schemes etc are  based on such numbers.  So they will try to somehow push the prices up for their own survival. So cheaper oil is welcome, but it is not trouble-free.

As India pushes for compulsory drug licences,others looking for the new twists

The fight over drug patents in India is quickly spreading to  other areas  as other countries are looking at new twists on the model for getting their hands on cheaper drugs.

BDR Pharmaceuticals  has asked the Indian patent office to give it a compulsory license for a generic version of  BMS’s  cancer drug Sprycel (Dasatinib). Earlier Indian Supreme Court upheld the country’s first compulsory license granted last year to Natco Pharma to make a generic version of Bayer's kidney cancer drug Nexvar. It justified the decision to override the patent on prices. Natco began selling Nexavar for $170 a month, compared with Bayer's $5,000/month.

Others companies have also seen patents breached in recent months. Pfizer suffered the loss of IP protections on its cancer drug Sutent ( Challengers : Cipla & Natco ) and Roche's patent coverage on the hepatitis C treatment Pegasys been revoked.(Challengers : Sankalp Rehabilitation Trust)  Novartis  is still fighting for patent protection on its blood cancer treatment Gleevec (Challengers : Several Indian drug companies, Government of India)   and the Indian government has moved toward compulsory licenses on Roche's Herceptin.

Proponents of the aggressive attacks on patents say it is the only way for poor people in emerging countries to have a chance of getting the same lifesaving treatments that others in the world enjoy. It is an argument that has traveled well. 

China granted itself compulsory licensing rights last year but has yet to exercise them. Now a lobbying group is pushing Greece to adopt a compulsory license law, but not so Greek companies could make generics. The idea is that once the patents are neutralized, Greece could import cheap generics from other countries, like India.

Under India’s patent rules, compulsory licences can be issued when an inventor company fails to supply products at an affordable price. In such instances, other companies can go to court to get a licence to make the same products.

Reacting to  the such developments some U.S. Congress members said if India is going to continue to play loose with patent protections, maybe the U.S. needs to rethink an exemption for India on import duties that comes up for renewal in July.

OTC sale of around 92 antibiotic and anti-TB drugs will be clamped down in India soon

Resistance to antibiotics is becoming a serious threat to Indians because of popular habit to pop pills at will which is an irrational use.  A recent study by the Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy, said there has been a six-fold increase in the number of antibiotics being popped by Indians.

In order to avoid such irrational use, DCGI has written to the Union health minister to notify a new schedule H1 in the Drugs and Cosmetics Rules. Once notified and following the clearance from the law ministry, these drugs cannot be sold without prescription. These drugs will also have to carry a prominent label in red colour with the following warning: "It is dangerous to take this prescription except in accordance with medical advice and not to be sold by retail without the prescription of the registered medical practitioner."

This is a very welcome news as we and world, staring at a post-antibiotic era, when common infections will no longer have a cure.

Source : Media reports

NPPA Revised prices for Medicines

Prices of 62 drugs, mainly used for treating diabetes and tuberculosis, have been raised while the rates of 14 other medicines have been reduced  ,  prices of 21 drugs have remained unchanged after a fresh review of the pricing of key medicines by the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA).

The NPPA, which considered rates for 19 drugs for the first time, reviewed prices of drugs used in treatment of diabetes, allergy, malaria, diarrhoea, asthma and hypertension along with antiseptics.

The NPPA also revised prices of four bulk drugs, following which diuretic spironolactone and salbutamol sulphate will be cheaper by 2.5 per cent and 18.87 per cent respectively.

According to it, bulk drug pyrantel pamoate (used in formulations of deworming medicines) and anti-allergic pheniramine maleate will be costlier by 8.12 per cent and 13.87 per cent respectively.

The reduction in prices of formulation drugs has been in the range of 2.47 per cent to 35.04 per cent from the prices claimed by the respective companies.

The price revision included more than 25 anti-TB drugs for which there was no significant increase while sulphadoxine plus pyrimethamine tablets will cost more due to upward revision in the import price of bulk drugs used for malaria.

India General Budget- 2011-12 HIGHLIGHTS

AC hospitals with more than 25 beds under service tax

Domestic travel to pay Rs 50 service tax, Rs 250 on international travel

Health check-up services now attract service tax

No change in Central Value-added Tax rates

No new tax exemption limits for women

Cut in import duties of raw material for mobile phones

Basic food, fuel exempted from central excise duty

Tax sops of Rs 20,000 on infra bonds extended by a year

1% excise duty on 130 new items

Rs 5 lakh tax exemption limit for individuals above 80 years of age

SEZ to come under MAT

Minimum alternative tax raised 185% vs 18%

Tax exemption limit increased to Rs 5 lakh for senior citizens

Eligible age for senior citizens is now 60 years against 65 years earlier

Exemption limit for individual tax payers raised to Rs 1.8 lakh from Rs 1.6 lakh

SC/ST scholarship scheme will benefit about 40 lakh students

Scholarships to SC/ST students in Class IX and X

Social projects spending outlay up 17% to Rs 16 lakh crore

Metro projects in key cities will get financial aid

Short term interest to farmers will continue to be at 7%

New companies bill to be introduced in this session

FII allowed to invest in MF schemes

FII limit in corporate bonds has been raised.

Indian railway Budget 2011-12- Highlights

* No increase in fares.

* Ten-year backlog of 1.75 lakh jobs being addressed; 16,000 ex-servicemen to be given jobs in railways.
* Will add 180 km of rail lines in 2011-12.
* All-India security helpline set up.
* New Durantos to be run on Allahabad-Mumbai, Pune-Ahmedabad, Sealdah-Puri, Secunderabad-Visakhapatnam, Madurai-Chennai routes, among others.
* Rail linkage to Gujarat from Delhi-Mumbai freight corridor.
* Integrated suburban network to be set up in Mumbai, Chennai, Ahmedabad and other cities; suburban system of Hyderabad to be strengthened.
* Mumbai suburban system's EMU coaches to be increased from nine to 12.

* Industrial park to be set up in Nandigram, West Bengal.

* Railways to set up factory in Jammu and Kashmir.

* To set up Metro coach factory at Singur, West Bengal.

* First coach from Rae Bareli factory to roll out in next three months.

* Work on wagon factory in Orissa to begin after land is acquired.

*  Imphal to be soon connected to railway network.

* Centre for excellence in software to be set up at Darjeeling.

* Work started on two dedicated freight corridors.

* Work on upgrading 442 stations to be completed by March 31.

* Multi-purpose smart card to be introduced for all-India travel.

* Airport-like trolleys to be provided at more stations.


* Upgraded class of air conditioned travel to be introduced shortly.

* To adopt modern technology through centres of academic excellence.

* Train to run to Bangladesh to showcase Indian culture.

* Age for senior citizen's concession reduced to 58 from 60.

* Concession for physically handicapped and gallantry award winners for travel in Rajdhani and Shatabdi expresses.

Name the SHAME

Mr. Ratan Tata  said  that he was advised to bribe a minister a sum of Rs 15 crore to get governmental approval to start a private airline company  some years back. It would have been appropriate  if Mr Tata had named the minister and made public his demands at that time  rather than  merely whining and seeking to occupy high moral ground. If business leaders of the stature of Mr Tata are willing to strike but afraid to wound, what can one expect of lesser mortals? Ordinary citizens facing people in power, one can understand their fear of authority. But an influential and powerful business leader like Mr. Tata can afford to speak up and speak out, without fear or favour.   Mr. Tata whom you are afraid of and for what??? Unless you speak up there is no value to the Jago re….. campaign  which is being sponsored by one of your group company.

Real resource of Afganistan

The news that one to two trillion-dollar worth of minerals lie buried under the dusty and dreary soil of Afghanistan has made waves across the world. Eager resource extractors are eyeing Afghanistan with renewed interest. Iron, copper, cobalt, gold and lithium are among the many minerals that are said to lie embedded in Afghan soil. Geologists have known this for a long time and China has already put in place plans to dig up and carry away billions of dollars worth of copper.


Interestingly, so far it is the United States and western powers that have spent money providing security in Afghanistan, while it is the Chinese who have got their hands on Afghan copper. Perhaps that is the payoff to China for its implicit support to US occupation of Afghanistan. One must not put the cart before the horse. Afghanistan’s untapped wealth can only be put to good use, in the interests of the Afghan people, when peace and security return to this unfortunate land. Afghans have been denied peace and security not only by enemies within the country but enemies outside, especially Pakistan.
The world needs to invest in the well-being and educational and economic empowerment of Afgans so that they can tap into their own wealth. India is contributing in this regard and India’s investment in education, health, roads and railways in Afghanistan will help it tap its own human resources.
Unless the Afghan people are empowered, the discovery of natural resources can only be a curse, not a blessing.

BS

Education- india calling

The cabinet on Monday approved a proposal to allow foreign universities to set up campuses. This proposal cld have potential to have the same impact as the post-1991 opening up had on the overall economy. The best case scenario is global best practices coming in and forcing Indian higher education to reform in the face of competition. The worst case scenario is second-class institutions coming in and that too only in areas with good revenue potential, taking away some of the good teachers from leading national institutions and eventually having little impact on the overall scene in terms of quality or quantity. Some of the leading institutions in the world have indicated that they are in no hurry to come, but this is just the beginning of a long process and the attractiveness of India as a market for higher education and catchment area for good students will only grow over time.

The issue of resources can be more difficult to resolve. To get good teachers, the best institutions which already have substantial vacancies, will have to pay better. As the government’s ability to keep footing a rising deficit is limited, higher fees should not lead to some of the brightest youngsters being unable to afford the best education. There are two solutions to this. One, raise fees but increase the scope of assistance and cheap educational loans so that the system becomes more or less means-blind. Two, improve the academic atmosphere, particularly for research, as that, as much as good pay, attracts the best teaching talent. The foreign institutions will be no different from domestic private unaided ones, which also do not have to abide by quotas. Besides, it can be argued that quotas do not automatically imply a handicap. The IITs and IIMs have to live down the criticism, made more often against the IIMs, that they produce the best because they take in the best, with little value addition by them. The best teachers are those who create the best out of the second best.

Water crisis- Immediate action required.

Nearly all large cities in India are in the grip of a serious water shortage, and it isl ikely to get worse in days ahead. As global warming makes the weather more unpredictable, the water economy of urban India will have to be planned without depending on reservoirs getting routinely filled up by rain every year. The solution to the cities’ water problem has to be sought mostly within the cities themselves by trapping rainwater, saving water and recycling as much of waste water as possible.

May be a part of the solution lies in simply running the water utilities better. Another solution lies in regulating and pricing the exploitation and use of groundwater. If this is not done, then groundwater levels will keep travelling lower and start scripting a disaster in the not too distant future. Water use has to be charged through pricing reflecting long-term sustainable cost. There need be no controversy over whether poor slum-dwellers should be made to pay because they already are, often with money and invariably with their time.

Few good examples cld be, Chennai has now a well-established system of mandatory water harvesting and the Hubli-Dharwad's infrastructure, efficient delivery and recovery of user charges have enabled 24x7 supply of affordable water.

Its time now for other cities to follow and replicate if they cant better it.

symptoms of Swineflu (H1N1) A compilation

The typical symptoms are:

* a sudden fever (a high body temperature of 38°C/100.4°F or above), and
* a sudden cough.

Other symptoms may include:

* headache,
* tiredness,
* chills,
* aching muscles,
* limb or joint pain,
* diarrhea or stomach upset,
* sore throat,
* runny nose,
* sneezing, or
* loss of appetite.


Call your GP directly if:

* you have a serious existing illness that weakens your immune system, such as cancer,
* you are pregnant,
* you have a sick child under one year age,
* your condition suddenly gets much worse, or
* your condition is still getting worse after seven days (five for a child).

It is already known that you are particularly at risk if you have:

* chronic (long-term) lung disease,
* chronic heart disease,
* chronic kidney disease,
* chronic liver disease,
* chronic neurological disease (neurological disorders include motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis and Parkinson's disease),
* immunosuppression (whether caused by disease or treatment) or
* diabetes mellitus.

Also at risk are:

* patients who have had drug treatment for asthma within the past three years,
* pregnant women,
* people aged 65 and older, and
* young children under five.

For most people, the illness appears to be mild. Cases have been confirmed in all age groups, but children and younger people seem much more likely to be affected.

How many more?????????- Terror in India

A terrorist attack every month through 2008. The scale gets bigger, and bolder. The response from the security agencies so far..??????. The country needs to see much more being done. A demand of an anti-terror law was pushed to a corner under the pretext that laws have been misused. A home minister who has been in a state of denial all these years has now found his government announcing yesterday the creation of a federal investigation agency.

LeT, whose cadres are known to be funded and trained by the Pakistan army's ISI are found to be involved once again , it means that India should not harbour any illusions about Pakistan's intentions. The induction of a civilian government in Pakistan has changed nothing. India must act with this knowledge, and put the maximum international pressure to make Pakistan pay the price for its misadventures.

Will Indian politician will rise to this occasion or its business usual. ( I hope all of them are not carrying the several sets of prepared speech in their pocket and waiting for the next round of such tragic terror to happen. If it happens then they are ready to deliver the instantaneous speech to address the nation with their crocodile tears. ( Politicians should be the best Actors. AB, SRK et al, Are you all wondering why it is not happening so far?????)

So far its clear, winning of the trust vote by Mr. Singh in the parliaments seems to be mandate for militants/ terrorists winning the trust & confidence of striking any where with in India with out any obstacle and fear. ( If you follow the stats)