CII disputes growth claims of India

Contradicting the growth numbers given out by the government, industry body Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has on 11th Nov claimed that 17 sectors have recorded negative growth in the first half of the current fiscal."It is a matter of concern that more than 50 per cent of the manufacturing sector has recorded either moderate or negative growth," said CII Industry Council Chairman Satish Kaura while releasing the ASCON Survey conducted by the chamber.
Contradicting the government's claim that only one of the 17 industry groups (based on two digit NIC classification) recorded negative growth in April-August 2007, the survey said 17 out of 91 sectors showed negative performance during the first half of the year(April-September).The survey attributed low growth in various segments of manufacturing to rising interest rates, reduced credit availability and a strong rupee.

The Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) signed by the government with some of the countries in the last two years too have adversely affected manufacturing sector performance, the survey said, adding, "automobile industry, including motorcycles and three-wheelers, are amongst the sectors in the negative sales growth category."

The CII-ASCON survey further revealed that cement, energy meter, ball and roller bearing, polymer, utility vehicles, refrigerators, rubber footwear, bus and truck tyre etc have shown moderate growth, while fertiliser, machine tools, capacitors, motorcycles, edible oil etc are in the negative growth category.The official Index of Industrial Production (IIP), however, had said that only metal products and parts (except machinery and equipment) showed negative growth during April-August 2007.

According to the CII ASCON survey, out of 91 sectors, 15 sectors reported excellent growth rate of more than 20 per cent, 22 sectors recorded high growth rate of 10-20 per cent, 37 sectors posted moderate growth rate of less than 10 per cent and 17 sectors reported negative growth.The percentage of sectors in excellent and high growth category declined, while that for the moderate and negative category increased over the period April 2007 to June 2007.

Scooters, mopeds, electric fans, sponge iron, circuit breakers and transformers were in the excellent growth category, while those in the high growth segment included asbestos, cement pig iron, power cables, industrial valves, textile machinery, transmission line towers, air conditioners and microwave ovens. As regards exports, the survey said, five sectors have shown excellent growth, five sectors revealed high growth, eight sectors registered moderate growth and five sectors registered fall in exports.

Exports of cement, ceramics, mopeds and rubber goods fell during the first six months of the current fiscal, it added.Machine tools, air-conditioners and motorcycles registered excellent growth performance, while those in the high growth category included vehicles, three-wheelers, industrial valves and cold rolled steel, the survey said.

Indians most optimistic on economy: McKinsey

Business executives in India are the most optimistic across the world when it comes to their take on the overall economy and inflation over the next six months, according to a survey by McKinsey.According to the Economic and Hiring Outlook survey by McKinsey for the latest quarter, 77% Indian executives said they think the economy would get ‘better’ in six months. This is the highest for the executives from any other region including China, Europe, North America and other Asia-Pacific nations.

The optimism level of 77% in India is considerably higher than the global average of 36% and the Asia-Pacific average of 46%. In China, 65% executives said they expect the country’s economy to improve in the next six months, while it was just 26% in North America. On inflation, 19% Indian executives said they expect it to decline in the next six months, which was the highest for any other region and significantly above the global average of 9% and Asia-Pacific average of 4%. In China, 13% said they expected inflation to moderate.

Just 27% of the executives in India said they expect inflation rate to increase in the next six months, which was the lowest in the world. It was the highest in China at 71%, while the global and Asia-Pacific averages stood at 39% and 52%, respectively.The survey found that around 53% Indians expect inflation to remain unchanged - higher than the global average of 51% and 43% in Asia-Pacific.

"More than half of the respondents expect inflation to remain stable over the next six months. That pattern holds even in India where three months ago, only a fifth of the respondents expected inflation to remain stable, but more than half currently do," McKinsey said.

BS

Mid Term policy review- Copious foreign flows

The surging capital inflows continue to pose a policy challenge for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), as it undertakes its mid-term policy review on October 30, despite some measures taken to contain unregulated inflows. The central bank is unlikely to signal any easing of monetary policy with surplus liquidity in the system, as any lowering of interest rates at this point, could hold upside risks to inflation.The copious capital inflows have forced the RBI to mop up close to $43 billion of foreign exchange since April and $20.5 billion since September alone, to curb rupee appreciation. The rupee has appreciated by over 11 per cent against the dollar since January.

The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council had estimated that an increase in the forex reserves of the RBI of $26 billion in 2007-08 could be consistent with the current real growth of the economy, moderate monetary expansion ( 17.5 per cent) and a tolerable inflation rate (4 per cent). "In the current financial year up to early October 2007 itself, forex reserves have increased by over $50 billion and tackling this problem is the most crucial policy dilemma.Of the Rs 1,75,000 crore infused into the system on account of RBI's intervention in the forex market, the RBI has absorbed Rs 1,12,000 crore through issue of bonds under its market stabilisation scheme (MSS) and around Rs 31,500 crore through increase in cash reserve requirements, leaving Rs 30,000 crore of liquidity infused via interventions in the foreign exchange market still to be sterilized.

The central bank has in the last one year raised the CRR or the portion of deposits that banks are required to park with it, by 200 basis points to 7 per cent to absorb the surplus liquidity. The RBI in consultation with the government has also successively raised the MSS ceiling to Rs 2,00,000 crore.The outstanding MSS as of October 26 was around Rs 1,77,000 crore. Out of the margin of Rs 23,000 crore, the RBI will absorb Rs 11,000 crore under its MSS in the two days following the policy review.

The government, however, is not likely to hike the MSS ceiling further this year, considering the fiscal cost involved. At Rs 2,00,000 crore outstanding, the annual cost to the government is already around Rs 14,000. The RBI could by raising the CRR by 50 basis points, absorb another about Rs 15.000 crore.However, the RBI may not want to hike the CRR in the upcoming policy, instead awaiting further curbs by the government on capital inflows.


Sebi has imposed controls on use of participatory notes for investments in equities to stem surging capital flows and make them more transparent. These measures are however unlikely to have any significant impact on foreign portfolio inflows.The RBI Governor, in his speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington earlier this month, said, "Risks from global developments continue to persist, especially in the form of inflationary pressures, re-pricing of risks by financial markets and the possibility of a downturn in some of the asset classes. Excessive leveraging has enhanced the vulnerability of the global financial system."

While, there has been a slowdown in credit growth to 23 per cent year-on-year, on October 12, from 29 per cent a year earlier, it is close to the RBI's projected growth of 24-25 per cent for 2007-08. With credit off take expected to pick up in the second half of the year, the RBI may not want to endanger the gains on inflation control front, by lowering either the repo or the reverse repo rate. The wholesale price index inflation stood at 3.3 per cent y-o-y for the week-ended September 29, though the consumer price index at 7.3 per cent, was seen hardening further. The high growth in money supply, at 21.8 per cent, is still above the RBI's target of 17-17.5 per cent. The concerns about overheating of the economy also persist against the backdrop of continued high growth in gross domestic product. According to the Central Statistical Organisation, during the first quarter of 2007-08, the real GDP grew by 9.3 per cent on the back of 9.1 per cent in the last quarter of 2006-07.

BS