De Dollarization is happening at a Stunning Pace. India's move so far !!!!!

The exercise of de-dollarisation, which was primarily on the drawing board for decades, is now taking wings. The process  has  accelerated following the  onset of the Russo-Ukrainian war and the subsequent, unprecedented sanctions against Russia. Almost surely the principal factor driving countries to move away from the current global financial system is, the U.S. government’s ability and ever-increasing willingness to weaponize the dollar against its political adversaries and those who refuse to go along with its political program.

The establishment of an alternative global banking system by other countries like  China, India, Brazil are slowly taking steps.  Several days ago China & Brazil  has decided to  dump the U.S. dollar as an intermediary currency &  will now conduct bilateral trade in their own currencies, exchanging yuan for reais.

Beijing has similar currency deals with Russia, Turkey, Pakistan, and several other countries—and it continues to expand that list of countries. Members of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)—a bloc that consists of China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan—agreed to increase the use of their national currencies in trade between the countries.

India, also considered an ally of the United States, like China, has stepped up its efforts to internationalize its own currency, the rupee, and in doing so is helping to further the de-dollarization trend.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already given its nod to various banks from 19 countries to open Special Vostro Rupee Accounts (SVRAs) to facilitate transactions in rupees(INR ₹). Latest country joining  is  Bangladesh in addition to Botswana, Fiji, Germany, Guyana, Israel, Kenya, Malaysia, Mauritius, Myanmar, New Zealand, Oman, Russia, Seychelles, Singapore, Sri Lanka,Tanzania, Uganda, and the United Kingdom

Many more countries have also expressed their interest in transacting in the Indian currency ₹. The global acceptance of India’s digital payment systems like the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has been steadily increasing in the last few months.

 

The BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa) block is also looking at developing a new reserve currency based on a basket of currencies of the member nations.

Many pundits have opined that the exercise to make the Indian rupee global is still just a dream at this time. There is no doubt that there are several challenges to this exercise but let us take one step at a time. The process has begun, we need to see if this can be a success.

Lithium finding in India , EV industry Charged Up..

As India gears up to boost electric vehicle (EV) adoption, the massive find of lithium reserves in the country has built up  excitement , hope of self-Reliance & brightened up the prospects for the country in the field of EV battery cell manufacturing. 

According to the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), the country will require USD 4.5Billion of investment to meet its domestic lithium-ion battery manufacturing target of setting up 50 GWh of lithium-ion cell and battery manufacturing plants. India's lithium cell production is projected to be 900 GWh by 2030.  

 "The 5.9 million tonnes of lithium reserves found in J&K, If completely extracted and converted into battery-grade Lithium  salts can support up to  great extent   though  the   details about quality, nature etc are yet to be fully established.

Lithium is  the lightest  metal & lightest  solid element . Being highly reactive   not found in its elemental form.  Mostly found in concentration with other materials in the form of oxides and carbonates. Extracting & converting the raw lithium to battery-grade lithium calls for a series of refining processes some of  technology are not available  in India. Very few Global companies  have  such expertise  and being doing this for decades.  

Though the EV penetration in India  till 2020  was very small , the EV penetration in India is slowly but steadily increasing, especially in the e-scooter segment. Now, the four-wheeler manufacturers have also joined the bandwagon,  specially Tata Motors  , M&M pushing India's aim to significantly cut the dependency on traditional fuels and internal combustion engine-driven vehicles by 2030.  

The slogan EV30@30  which means ,  the government expects the EV sales penetration to be 30 per cent by 2030. for private automobiles. 70 per cent for commercial vehicles, and 80 per cent for two and three-wheelers, which would not only reduce the country's oil import bills in the longer term, but also ensure a cleaner environment.  

The discovery of Lithium is vital as it comes at a time when India is going all out for a green transition in transportation,, where electric vehicle adoption has become a national priority..

India finds 5.9 million tonnes of Lithium deposits.

The Union Government of India on Thursday said that 5.9 million tonnes of lithium reserves have been found for the first time in the country in Jammu and Kashmir. Lithium is a non-ferrous metal and is one of the key components in EV batteries.

"Geological Survey of India for the first time established Lithium inferred resources (G3) of 5.9 million tonnes in the Salal-Haimana area of the Reasi district of Jammu and Kashmir," the Ministry of Mines said on Thursday.

It further said that 51 mineral blocks including Lithium and Gold were handed over to respective state governments.

"Out of these 51 mineral blocks, 5 blocks pertain to gold and other blocks pertain to commodities like potash, molybdenum, base metals etc. spread across 11 states of Jammu and Kashmir (UT), Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana," the ministry added.

The blocks were prepared based on the work carried out by GSI from field seasons 2018-19 to till date.

India likely to become third biggest economy by FY28

 

India likely to become the third-biggest economy behind the US and China by FY28, two years earlier than initially expected, overtaking Germany and Japan, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database.

India overtook UK to became the 5^th largest economy this year.

India's GDP would match Germany's in size to become the fourth-largest by 2025–2026.

The World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that it will surpass Japan in growth and move up to the third-largest position by 2027-28 (FY28). 

 

India’s rapid progress…

• Most developed economies hit hard by pandemic and war-triggered inflation
• They will grow marginally or even go into recession
• India’s growth also took a knock but economy expected to expand at good pace
• Rupee has depreciated less than many currencies against the dollar

…but not just relative out performance

• India has sound macro fundamentals.
• Inflation high,but is not skyrocketing.
• Current account deficit high but expected to moderate 
• Forex reserves down but still at nearly $550 b Fiscal situation is comfortable 
• Banks are in a strong position and credit cycle is picking up 

Why MNCs struggling and quiting India ????

A few  big names like  Metro AG, Holcim, Ford,  General Motors ,  Royal Bank of  Scotland, Harley -  Davidson,   Citibank   have chosen to pull the plug on their operations in India or downsize their presence here in recent years. 

This is something to wonder about , at a time when India is trying to position itself as an alternative to China, &  where many MNCs are looking to diversify their supply chain.

While the reasons  could be  company-specific .  In  some cases such as restructuring to curb losses, failure to crack the price-sensitive Indian market,  replicating western business model  blindly rather than   adopting  to a local model. Several have also given up on India due to regulatory flip-flops, high tariff barriers, red tape, perplexing land policies, infrastructure issues and others tied to the ease of doing business.

Ease of doing business in India has definitely improved over the last five years. However, to bring about this improvement, the government is constantly making regulatory changes which have taken some time to get used to. 

 

To make things worse, there are 26,134 imprisonment clauses in India’s business laws, according to an Observer Research Foundation report that highlights the risks faced by entrepreneurs and corporations in doing business in India.

To be sure, many  western MNCs, especially carmakers, had to leave India because of their own inability to crack the world’s fourth-largest auto market, resulting in poor sales.   There is definitely a lack of planning or understanding of the Indian markets among MNCs that have failed.  The competition is also very high and most foreign companies struggle to meet customer expectations. Cultivating brand loyalty in the Indian market is also very difficult, especially when companies succumb to product modifications i.e., making cheaper substitutes.

 

 

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