Intellectual Thoughts by Sanjay Panda


Chemical Industry on a path of muted recovery

Chemical makers have grown more confident that the global economy and industry demand are pulling out of one of the deepest dives since at least the early 1980s. Second-half economic forecasts issued recently by ACC and German chemical industry association VCI (Frankfurt) called an end to demand declines but warned of slow recovery. While the surge in energy and stock prices from early 2009 levels would seem to signal a strong rebound, chemical makers appear to be bracing for a slow recovery.

European petrochemical sector shows that the market has stabilized but producers acknowledge the need for further rationalization. For operating rates to come back to good levels, some capacity will have to shut down in Europe, claims leading producer . The same is true for the U.S. Dow Chemical announced earlier this month that it would end styrene production at Freeport, TX as it continues to trim North American olefins and styrenics production to match underlying demand and reduce its exposure to basic chemicals.

Industry challenges like overcapacity, weak demand, and broader economic concerns arising from high levels of unemployment and a still-fragile financial system are likely to mute recovery. The question is whether this development is a sustainable one and long lasting basis.There are still unsolved issues caused by the financial crisis and the chemical industry is not yet on a solid growth path at least as of now.

ACC’s recently released third-quarter outlook shows that conditions have stabilized but notes that 2009 activity will fall well below year-ago levels. U.S. chemical industry output is expected to fall 10.7% in 2009, before posting a gain of about 1.5% in 2010. Demand is clearly moving off the bottom but chemical makers could face a slow path to full recovery.

WHO's New guidelines on swine flu

Issuing a new set of guidelines for the use of drugs against swine flu (H1N1), the World Health Organization(WHO) has said patients with uncomplicated illnesses do not need to take antiviral drugs.


Worldwide, most infected patients continue to display typical influenza symptoms and fully recover within a week without any form of medical treatment, the WHO said.According to the new guidelines, formed by consensus by a global group of experts, patients with uncomplicated illnesses do not need to be treated with antiviral medicines.

The guidelines emphasise using drugs such as oseltamivir and zanamivir, to which the pandemic virus is susceptible, to prevent severe illness and deaths, reduce the need for hospitalisation, and shorten hospital stays. When properly prescribed, oseltamivir is found to significantly curb the risk of pneumonia, a leading cause of death for both the pandemic and seasonal influenza, it said.

WHO recommends treatment with the drug as soon as possible among people who are severely or whose conditions begin to deteriorate. Where oseltamivir is not available, zanamivir can be given. The virus is currently resistant to a second class of antiviral, known as M2 inhibitors.As pregnant women are among the groups considered to be at increased risk, WHO recommends that they receive antiviral treatment as soon as possible after the onset of symptoms.

The guidelines call for prompt treatment for children including those under five years of age with severe or worsening illnesses, as well as those at risk of more severe or complicated illness.Otherwise healthy children over five years, WHO said, do not need antiviral treatment unless their conditions persist or worsen.

If someone with confirmed or suspected H1N1 infections shows symptoms including shortness of breath, chest pain and high fever lasting beyond three days, they should seek immediate medical attention. Among children, warning signs include fast or difficult breathing, lack of alertness, difficulty in waking up and little or no desire to play..

symptoms of Swineflu (H1N1) A compilation

The typical symptoms are:

* a sudden fever (a high body temperature of 38°C/100.4°F or above), and
* a sudden cough.

Other symptoms may include:

* headache,
* tiredness,
* chills,
* aching muscles,
* limb or joint pain,
* diarrhea or stomach upset,
* sore throat,
* runny nose,
* sneezing, or
* loss of appetite.


Call your GP directly if:

* you have a serious existing illness that weakens your immune system, such as cancer,
* you are pregnant,
* you have a sick child under one year age,
* your condition suddenly gets much worse, or
* your condition is still getting worse after seven days (five for a child).

It is already known that you are particularly at risk if you have:

* chronic (long-term) lung disease,
* chronic heart disease,
* chronic kidney disease,
* chronic liver disease,
* chronic neurological disease (neurological disorders include motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis and Parkinson's disease),
* immunosuppression (whether caused by disease or treatment) or
* diabetes mellitus.

Also at risk are:

* patients who have had drug treatment for asthma within the past three years,
* pregnant women,
* people aged 65 and older, and
* young children under five.

For most people, the illness appears to be mild. Cases have been confirmed in all age groups, but children and younger people seem much more likely to be affected.