Intellectual Thoughts by Sanjay Panda


Monsoons likely to be Critical Factor for the Indian Monetary Policy



The  farm sector accounts for 14 percent of India's nearly $2 trillion economy, with two-thirds of its 1.2 billion population living in rural areas.  Half of India's farmland still lacks access to irrigation & depends on the vagaries of the monsoons.  

Poor rains generally hit summer crops such as rice, soybean, corn and cotton, raising food prices and pressuring economic growth that has nearly halved to below 5 percent in the past two years.  Rains are vital to rejuvenate  the  economy which is  battling its longest economic slowdown since the 1980s and to cool inflation that has averaged nearly 10-11 per cent for the past two years.

The Met Department has predicted  that the  rains will be 95 per cent normal this year and it is likely to revise its estimate later  in end June  according to the movement of the rainfall. If  official rain forecasts come true  then inflation  likely  to fall  below 8 per cent .

The likely fall in inflation, coupled with stability in the rupee and a slight pick up in growth    may lead RBI to be more balanced in its monetary policy making. The RBI has been repeatedly saying it will balance out concerns between the sagging growth and inflation even though it considers reining in the prices as a key objective. The RBI has raised its key rates three times  since  last September but took some growth-oriented measures like the decision to lower the SLR, which is likely to release an additional Rs 40,000 crore  ( $6.5B) for lending.

India's Factory output falls to the lowest level in over 2 years



India’s industrial production dropped an annual 1.9% in February as manufacturing contracted 3.7%, the sharpest drop in 28 months, while exports tumbled 3.2% in March, recording its second straight month of contraction. 

Rating agency Fitch affirmed India’s sovereign rating at “BBB-” with a stable outlook and it  expects the country’s economic growth to accelerate from 4.7% in FY14 to 5.5% this fiscal and 6% next year. Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund had forecast India’s GDP growth to accelerate from 4.6% in FY14 to 5.4% in FY15 and further to 6.4% in FY16. 

In Q3 of FY14, the trade deficit stood at $28.6 billion against $29.9 billion. The reduction in trade deficit in Q3 suggests further improvement in the (current account deficit)  for  Q4.  If services exports, remittances and investment income remain broadly unchanged in Q4, CAD for fiscal 2014 could fall below 2% of GDP — for the first time since fiscal 2008-09. Exports for all of FY14 stood at $312 billion against the targeted $325 billion but higher than $300 billion in FY13, a growth of 4%. 

Importantly, given the prolonged slump in domestic demand, exports of goods and services as a share of GDP was projected to rise from 22% in FY11 and 24% in FY13 to 24.9% in FY14, as per advance GDP estimate released a few weeks ago. Imports, however, were projected to account for 28.8% of GDP in FY14, down from 30.7% in the previous year. 

As for industrial output, electricity generation grew at its fastest since September last year at 11.5% in February and mining posted a 1.4% expansion. These were, however, not enough to offset a 3.7% contraction in manufacturing, stoked by a demand collapse as the industrial production slumped from 0.8% growth in January. In six of the 11 months to February, industrial production witnessed contraction.

FMC Corporation Announces Separation into Two Independent Public Companies


FMC Corporation Announces Separation into Two Independent Public Companies
  • New FMC will be comprised of FMC Agricultural Solutions and FMC Health and Nutrition segments
  • FMC Minerals will be comprised of the current FMC Minerals segment, which includes the Alkali Chemicals and Lithium businesses
PHILADELPHIA, March 10, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- FMC Corporation (NYSE: FMC) today announced plans to separate into two independent public companies, "New FMC," which will be comprised of FMC's Agricultural Solutions and Health and Nutrition segments and "FMC Minerals," which will be comprised of FMC's current Minerals segment.  The company expects the separation, which remains subject to final board approval and other customary conditions, will take the form of a tax-free distribution of shares to existing FMC shareholders.  FMC Corporation expects to complete the separation in early 2015, and each company is expected to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange. 
Pierre Brondeau, FMC Corporation president, CEO and chairman, said: "FMC has proactively managed its portfolio during the last four years as part of Vision 2015, including a realignment of our reporting segments early last year.  Our decision to separate into two independent companies is a natural progression of our strategy. We believe that creating two companies, each with its own publicly-listed equity, will enable the management of each company to pursue its own strategy. This will give each company greater focus on the success factors that are most important to its business and allow the adoption of a capital structure that is appropriate to its business profile.
"The creation of two independent companies will deliver meaningful benefits to each of the businesses, the communities in which we operate and all of our stakeholders. Our customers will continue to have collaborative relationships with financially strong organizations that are focused on meeting their needs, and our employees will have new career opportunities."
 
New FMC
New FMC, comprised of FMC Agricultural Solutions and FMC Health and Nutrition segments, will be a technology-based and customer-driven company with deep application expertise. Based on the midpoint of the company's February 2014 outlook, combined revenue and earnings for the Agricultural Solutions and Health and Nutrition segments are expected to be approximately $3.35 billion, up 16 percent over 2013, and $815 million, up 15 percent over 2013, respectively.  New FMC is expected to maintain a strong balance sheet and financial policies consistent with FMC Corporation's current credit rating. 
FMC Agricultural Solutions is a science-based business, serving growers worldwide. Growers look to FMC Agricultural Solutions for innovative crop-protection products developed from science-based innovation, field development, applications expertise and toxicology that, on a crop-by-crop, region-by-region basis, enhance quality and yield.
FMC Health and Nutrition develops products from natural sources that provide texture, stability and natural color solutions for food applications, while also producing binders, coatings and high-purity, high-concentration omega-3 for pharmaceutical and nutraceutical applications. Customers rely on FMC Health and Nutrition for its technical excellence, innovative products and collaborative R&D approach.
FMC Minerals
FMC Minerals will be comprised of the current FMC Minerals segment, which includes the Alkali Chemicals and Lithium businesses. Based on the midpoint of the company's February 2014 outlook, revenue and earnings for the FMC Minerals segment are expected to be approximately $1.0 billion, up 7 percent over 2013, and $153 million, up 19 percent over 2013, respectively. FMC Minerals is expected to generate strong cash flow and have the financial flexibility to pursue select investment opportunities. FMC Minerals will maintain FMC Corporation's disciplined approach to capital deployment and will continue to focus on sustainable, safe and ethical extraction of minerals, process efficiencies, and manufacturing and customer service excellence.
Both the Alkali Chemicals and Lithium businesses are structurally-advantaged minerals businesses, with cost-advantaged operations. Both businesses compete in attractive markets.  The Alkali Chemicals business is the largest global producer of natural soda ash, using low-cost technologies to extract trona ore to produce soda ash and related products used in the glass, chemical processing and detergent industries. The Lithium business is the only brine-to-metals producer with a broad global product portfolio, selling into the energy storage, pharmaceuticals, polymers and industrial markets. Underlying market demand for lithium remains strong, driven by growth in energy storage from electric vehicle adoption and other applications.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs are acting as financial advisors to FMC Corporation on the proposed transaction and Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz is serving as legal advisor to the company.
source : FMC site